Another platform, Kalshi, places his chances at 18.8 percent, with Newsom close behind at 18.1 percent.
The latest figures mark a noticeable drop from where things stood just months ago. In late September, market estimates suggested Vance had over a 30 percent chance of becoming president, making the current numbers a sharp contrast to earlier expectations.
The shift also comes amid criticism from Joe Rogan, who recently described MAGA supporters as “really weird, f**king uninteresting, unintelligent people that have got something they cling to” and “dorks.”
Vance later responded to the comments during an appearance on The Benny Show, saying: “I think we have many, many fewer dorks than the far left, but everybody’s got some dorks
“We love our dorks,” he added. “We love our cool kids. We love anybody who wants to save the country.”
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